Cindy Dunnican | July 2026
What is the housing market doing in North Texas right now?
The North Texas housing market in Q2 2026 is a market of two distinct stories — a softening headline and a forward-looking pipeline that tells a more optimistic story than most public reports are capturing. Communities that look buyer-leaning on paper are quietly building contract activity that will flip the supply picture by fall. Others are outperforming the metro by a margin that deserves its own explanation.
If you've been watching the North Texas market and wondering whether the softening is real, who it affects, and whether it's almost over — Q2 2026 gives you more clarity than any single month has. The Texas REALTORS® quarterly data across the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington MSA shows 27,445 closings — up 4.4% from Q2 2025 — even as the median price slipped 1.2% to $395,145.
Volume up, price slightly down, inventory contracting. That's not a distressed market. It's a market finding its footing.
Here's what the Q2 2026 NTREIS data actually shows across Rockwall County, Northeast Dallas, and the surrounding communities we track every quarter.
Jump to your city:
Rockwall • Rowlett • Heath • Wylie • Sachse • Garland • Richardson • Plano • Allen • Murphy • Dallas • Mesquite • Fate • Royse City • McLendon-Chisholm • Forney • Flower Mound • Carrollton • Farmers Branch • Lucas • Fairview • Parker • Lavon • Sunnyvale • Caddo Mills • Farmersville • Josephine • Community ISD • Waterview
The Headline: Recalibration, Not Retreat
The DFW metro-wide median sale price reached $395,145 in Q2 2026 — a 1.2% decline year over year — while median price per square foot fell 2.3% to $190.79. Active listings fell 4.2% to 35,134 and months of supply held at 4.5. At the broadest level, the region is balanced and absorbing its post-peak correction without deteriorating.
But the metro aggregate continues to obscure what's actually happening community by community — and the spread between the strongest and softest markets right now is wider than it's been in several years. The close-to-list ratio of 95.4% and the 57-day average days on market are the two metro-wide benchmarks to keep in mind as you read the community-level data below.
The Markets That Are Running Hot
A handful of communities stood out in Q2 for clear, consistent seller-favorable metrics — in some cases, metrics that look more like a peak-era market than a correcting one.
Flower Mound is the standout of the quarter — arguably of the year. Closed sales rose 19.8% to 339, the median price held flat at $650,000 (+0.3%), per-square-foot value ticked up 0.4%, and the close-to-original-list ratio actually improved from 97.6% to 98.0%. Days on market averaged 26 — down 2 from Q2 2025. In a quarter when most DFW suburbs reported rising DOM, Flower Mound went the other direction. The explanation is structural: a 28-year median home age means the community is fully built out with no new construction supply, and its specific lifestyle and school profile attract a loyal, qualified buyer who isn't easily redirected. When that buyer profile meets structural supply scarcity, you get a market that doesn't follow the metro average.
Carrollton delivered one of the more surprising performances of the quarter. Its median price declined 3.5% to $420,000 — but per-square-foot value rose 1.1%, making this a mix-shift story rather than a value story. More telling: closed sales rose 8.6%, active listings fell 6.8%, months of supply declined to 3.4 — seller-leaning — and days on market held flat at 33 days while most comparable markets were rising. Carrollton is a 41-year-old fully built-out community where resale-only supply dynamics and inner-ring Dallas location are doing the same structural work Flower Mound's are.
Farmers Branch is the quiet outlier. Median price rose 4.7% to $445,000 — one of the few markets in this report where the gain is backed by stable per-square-foot values and consistent home size rather than a composition effect. Active listings fell 8.9%, months of supply is 3.9, and days on market improved 6 days to 38. It has the oldest housing stock in this report — a 55-year median home age — which means no new construction competing for its buyer pool, and consistent demand from buyers who specifically want its established character and inner-ring location.
Murphy is worth noting for its stability rather than any dramatic headline. Closed sales jumped 22.2% to 55 while the median price held essentially flat at $607,900 (−0.6%) and the close-to-list ratio of 96.5% was virtually unchanged from a year ago. When sales volume surges without inventory expanding, it typically signals a demand improvement — and Murphy's flat pricing alongside rising volume is the profile of a market finding its equilibrium.
The Markets Finding Their Footing
Several communities are showing real structural improvement after a period of softening — not fully recovered, but clearly moving in the right direction.
Mesquite is the most aggressive tightening story in the inner-ring Dallas market. Closed sales rose 15.0% to 415 while active listings fell 17.1% to 470 — the sharpest inventory reduction among inner-ring markets this quarter. Months of supply declined 1.1 to 3.9. The median price fell 3.5% to $280,000, which means buyers still have modest room. But supply is contracting faster than prices are falling, which is the classic precursor to pricing stabilization. If the current trajectory holds, Mesquite may be the first DFW market to report positive year-over-year price gains in Q3 or Q4.
Wylie posted a 15.4% reduction in active listings while closed sales rose 3.5% and months of supply declined 0.8 to 4.3. The close-to-list ratio fell from 98.9% to 95.1% — the largest single decline in the Rockwall County group — but that figure reflects where the market was, not where it's going. The structural tightening underway argues for stabilization ahead. Wylie's 18-year housing stock, accessible price points, and Collin County location continue to generate consistent demand.
Royse City posted an 18.9% jump in closed sales to 88, an 8.5% reduction in active listings, and an 8-day improvement in days on market — all in the same quarter. Months of supply fell 0.4 to 5.9. The median price rose 2.5% to $325,477 — mostly a mix-shift from larger homes closing — but per-square-foot value was essentially flat. In a new construction market at Royse City's price point, structural tightening + volume growth is the combination that typically precedes pricing recovery.
Buffalo Creek in Heath is the neighborhood-level story worth flagging. Inventory collapsed from 7.5 months to 3.0 — seller-leaning — in a single year, while per-square-foot values rose 4.5% and closed sales more than doubled. The reported −16.6% median decline is almost entirely a comparison-base distortion; the per-square-foot data tells the real story. Heath overall saw months of supply fall from 13.2 to 7.8 and closed sales surge 58.8%. The community that was working through significant oversupply in 2025 is now absorbing efficiently.
Where Buyers Still Have Leverage
Several markets continue to give buyers real time, real selection, and real room to negotiate.
Prosper sits at 7.2 months of supply with a 93.4% close-to-list ratio and per-square-foot values down 7.8%. At the $750,000–$1M+ price point, rate sensitivity has compressed the qualified buyer pool and builders are delivering more homes than current demand is absorbing. Buyers in Prosper have as much leverage as the market has offered in years — and builder incentive programs are adding meaningful value beyond list price reductions.
Forney repriced in Q2, with the median declining 10.0% to $315,000 and per-square-foot values down 5.6%. But the most telling number is days on market: 71 days, down 18 from Q2 2025. In a softening market, improving pace means sellers are meeting buyers at adjusted prices rather than waiting for buyers to come to them. The repricing is working. Buyers have leverage; the clearing price is being discovered.
Lucas has 8.0 months of supply and a 93.2% close-to-list ratio — buyer-favorable conditions in a community where 81.5% of sales are above $1M. For buyers who have been targeting Lucas's custom acreage lots and Collin County positioning, current conditions represent a purchase window that may not look this favorable once rate conditions improve.
McLendon-Chisholm is at 8.9 months of supply with a 92.3% close-to-list ratio — among the more buyer-leaning conditions in Rockwall County. The reported +19.8% median gain is almost entirely a home-size mix-shift; per-square-foot value rose just 0.4%. Buyers negotiating here have real room on a premium newer-construction product in a community that typically commands a significant premium over surrounding markets.
The Numbers Worth Watching
Plano's inventory contraction is the most dramatic in this report — active listings fell 21.8% to 745 while closed sales rose 11.9% to 751. With closings essentially matching available supply in a single quarter, Plano's months of supply sits at 3.5 — seller-leaning — even as the median price softened just 1.4%. This is Plano's affordability ceiling dynamic: rate headwinds cap demand while rate lock-in keeps sellers out of the market, producing tight supply alongside modest price softening. When rates ease, this is one of the markets most positioned for rapid demand recovery.
Waterview in Rowlett has 15 homes under contract against 32 active listings — a 47% pending-to-active ratio. The trailing 6-month absorption rate is 3.8 homes per month. With 15 contracts in the pipeline, the neighborhood is absorbing at nearly double its recent pace. When those contracts close, active inventory drops to approximately 17 homes — 4.5 months of supply, balanced territory. The quarterly data says buyer's market; the pipeline says the market is already changing.
Garland reached the 4.0-month supply threshold — exactly the dividing line between balanced and seller-leaning — while days on market improved 5 days to 43 and closed sales held essentially flat. A market where inventory contracts, pace improves, and supply hits the balanced threshold simultaneously is not a declining market. It's a market that has absorbed its correction.
The Small-Sample Markets
Several communities — McLendon-Chisholm, Caddo Mills, Lucas, Sunnyvale, Parker, Josephine, and Farmersville — recorded fewer than 25 closed sales in Q2 2026. At that volume, no quarterly aggregate is statistically reliable as a standalone indicator, and several posted dramatic percentage swings that reflect composition effects rather than genuine market-wide trends.
If you're buying or selling in any of these markets, a 6- to 12-month comparable sales window — pulled directly from NTREIS — and a conversation with a local agent is the right starting point. What happened this quarter is reference data. What the last year of comparable transactions shows is pricing intelligence.
What This Means for You
If you're a seller heading into Q3 2026, the most important insight from this data is directional: most of the DFW markets we track are tightening, not loosening. Inventory is falling in more communities than it's rising. Sales volume is recovering. The sellers who are succeeding right now are pricing from current per-square-foot comparables — not from what a neighbor's home sold for in 2023, and not from what the aggregate median says. Individual markets and individual price points define your outcome, not the metro average.
If you're a buyer, the leverage window that existed across most of this region in 2024 and early 2025 is actively narrowing in the structural data. It hasn't closed everywhere — Prosper, Forney, Lucas, and McLendon-Chisholm still offer real selection and real room to negotiate. But in Flower Mound, Carrollton, Plano, and Farmers Branch, supply is tight enough that hesitation on the right home has a real cost. The pipeline data in neighborhoods like Waterview tells you market reports are always looking backward. The market you're buying in today is already different from the one the last quarterly report described.
FAQ
What is the median home price in the DFW metro area right now? The DFW metro median sale price was $395,145 in Q2 2026, down 1.2% from Q2 2025. Median price per square foot declined 2.3% to $190.79. These figures reflect All Residential sales across the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington MSA per Texas REALTORS® quarterly data via NTREIS.
Which North Texas cities have the most inventory right now? Dallas leads with approximately 4,200 active listings, followed by Garland (588), Plano (745), and Mesquite (470). In Rockwall County, Rockwall had the most active listings at 419, followed by Royse City at 129. Supply levels range from 3.4 months in Carrollton to 10.1 months in Josephine — with most communities in the 4.0–6.0 month range.
Is now a good time to sell a home in the Dallas–Fort Worth area? It depends on which community you're in. In Q2 2026, Flower Mound, Carrollton, Plano, Farmers Branch, and Murphy are posting seller-leaning conditions with close-to-list ratios above 96% and days on market under 45. Markets like Prosper, Forney, and McLendon-Chisholm still favor buyers meaningfully. The metro average doesn't tell your story — your community's specific data does.
Are North Texas home prices still falling in 2026? Modestly and selectively. The metro median declined 1.2% in Q2 2026, but the range is wide — from genuine gains in Farmers Branch (+4.7%) and Flower Mound (+0.3%) to steeper declines in Forney (−10.0%) and McLendon-Chisholm (where the −7.7% figure is largely a mix-shift effect). Most established inner-ring markets are showing per-square-foot values that are flat to slightly positive, while new construction communities with elevated supply continue to show real pricing pressure.
The Bottom Line
Q2 2026 is a quarter that rewards being specific — and that rewards looking forward, not just backward. The closed data says the DFW market is softening. The pipeline data in communities like Waterview, and the structural data in communities like Mesquite and Royse City, says the softening is working through the system and the second half of 2026 looks different from the first.
If you want to talk through what the Q2 data means for your specific situation in Rockwall County, Northeast Dallas, or any of the communities we track quarterly, we're here to do exactly that.
Cindy Dunnican | The Dunnican Team | Coldwell Banker Apex, Realtors 972-679-1789 | thedunnicanteam.com
Source: Texas REALTORS® MarketViewer / NTREIS via MetroTex Association of REALTORS®, reporting period April 1–June 30, 2026, with Q2 2025 comparison metrics. Neighborhood-level data sourced directly from NTREIS MLS.
